University of South Carolina Libraries
j| jmh rtgM9^ - IlI * ? Kathy Floyd, owner of Circes ii Recove oiM(i r? ~ rrum oiciii nepuns Thirteen of fifteen USC economists predict an economic recovery in 1993, according to an informal study following the presidential election. One faculty member, who did not predict a recovery, said the economy will remain in the nearstagnant position it's been in for two years and another said false indicators might give the appear al 1 * W W&JMF p p '0 f*? 1 ioiii-. * #11 - - - :: i Five Points, designs a Christmas d ry will h ance of growth in 1993. Asked to assume a recovery would occur, 13 professors said any resurgence would be weak or modest. Two faculty members predicted a strong recovery in the coming year on the questionaire prepared by USC's Media Relations department. The survey respondents, who represent half of USC's economics faculty, were split on the question of how South Carolina will fare. Eight faculty members said the state's economy won't outperform the nation, while six said the state will do better than the rest of the country. A large majority also predicted slightly higher interest rates and inflation, which could dampen a recovery. In follow-up interviews, some respondents said the stage is set for a positive change in the economy after two years of stagnation. Many also said President-elect Bill Clinton won't have enough time after his Jan. 20 inauguration to bring about a radical change in the econmy during 1993. "The signals are set for the : - :rv: : ' mr isplay in her store. She is adding ?e slow, < "The signals are set for the economy to improve." Dr. Frank Hefner USC Economist economy to improve," Dr. Frank Hefner, a research economist in USC's College of Business Administration, said. "Right now, everybody has been consolidationg their debt for a couple of years, so we're in a good position." "I'm confident that we're going to do better, but it will be modest," Dr. William Wesson, professor emeritus. "We still have so many long-standing, fundamental problems facing us." Wesson cited the federal government's $4 trillion deficit and the need for a better-educated work force as factors hampering a full-fledged recovery. "I hope to be proven wrong," research economist Dr. Douglas Woodward said. He was virtually alone in pre m j&w 311 "" V- '' ; '".. / ' ?'*?,.? additional store hours in hopes ( econom dieting the 1993 economy won't outperform the previous two years. A second USC faculty member said a false recovery could be spurred by government spending. Woodward, who oversees the monthly South Carolina economic Indicators report, said he expects the economy to remain virtually unchanged in 1993, with very slow growth and, perhaps, one quarter of decline. "Some things have stabilized in the economy, but other factors have cropped up," Woodward said. "We've had falling exports recently and have the possibility of a trade war with Europe and a global siowuown. Hefner said the prospect of slightly higher inflation levels and interest rates in 1993 could offset economic growth somewhat. Higher prices could work to cancel out gains in personal income, though Hefner said inflation will be a minimal factor during 1993. "How much it hurts consumers would depend on how much personal income goes up. Clinton's going to be walking a tightrope," Hefner said. jBgp . J ? Hi * wjSH ^B^BMfr**lfctf _mjB_i_* toStmJr " " " ' ^ * 4 ' te &yig158 ' JiBis Stephanie Newlin/The Gamecock )f a holiday rush this year. ists say The economists also were asked to guage whether several important economic indicators will rise or r.ii .1 mn^. ian signuicanuy in ivvj: Unemployment will fall, according to 13 economists. Interest rates will rise, 13 economists predicted.. Ten economists expect inflation to rise, while four said any change will be slight. The gross national product, the value of all the goods the nation produces, will rise, 13 economists said. Two said it will increase slightly. The U.S trade deficit is due to increase, 14 economists said, predicting the nation will be importing more than it ships overseas. While those factors will be important, Woodward echoed many colleagues by saying the way consumers spend their money could boost the chances for economic improvement. "Consumer commence could be self-reinforcing," he said. "If consumers aren't confident and hold back on spending, it could slow growth down and hurt the chances for a recovery."