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4 During 1969 IN tNss Babson Foresees New Business Peaks toas bom in King, behold, Bethlehem of Judea in the there came tense men from Now when Jesus days of Herod the the east to Jerusalem, ^ r • t Saying, Where is he that is bom King of the Jews? for we have seen his star in the east, and are come to worship him.—— When Herod the Kina had heard these things, he was troubled, and all Jerusalem with him. ^ , .. And when he had gathered all the chief vnests and scribes of the people together, he demanded of them where Christ should b€ b And ~they said unto him. In Bethlehem of Judea; for thus it is tcritten by the prophet, . , . And thou Bethlehem, the land of Judo; are not the least among the princes of Juda, for out of thee shall came a Governor, that shall rule my people of Israel. ur Then Herod, when he had pnvily called the Wise men, en quired of them diligently what time the star appeared And he sent them to Bethlehem, and said, go and search diligently for the young Child; and when ye have found him, bring me word again, that I may come and worship him also. When they had heard the King, they departed, and, lo, the star, which they saw in the east, went oefore them, till it came and stood over where the young child was. When they saw the star, they rejoiced with exceeding great joy. And when they were to come into the house, they saw the young child with Mary his Mother, and fell down, and worshipped him; and when they had opened their treasures, they presented him gifts, gold, and frankincense, and myrrh bei A^d not return other way. ng warned of God in a dream that they should to Herod, they departed into their own country an- MATTHEW 2; 12 in WHEN ELEVEN VOTES DECIDED While last month’s cliffhanper election is still fresh our minds may be a good time to look back at the first close vote in our country. The meeting to draft a governing document for our country was convened in May of 1787. Final ratification • f the document did not come until the ninth State to approve the plan voted in June of the following year, 1788. The ratify ing vote within the states was by no means a landslide. In New Hampshire, the ninth, the vote was 57 to 46 Exactly 11 votes carried the day. The dissenting vote, we hasten to note, was not a re flection of real opposition to the Constitution itself, but rather a protest of what it did not contain. In 1787, Thomas Jefferson wrote to a friend. “Our new constitution is powerfully attacked in the Ameiican news papers The objections are, th.it Its effect w'ould be to form the thirteen States into one; that, proposing to melt all down into one general government, they have fenced the people by no declaration of rights. . . .” That same year, Jefferson voiced his own opinions in a letter to James Madison; “I have a right to nothing, which another has a right to take away; and Congress will have a ri^ht to take away trials by jury in all civil cases. Let me add, that a bill of rights is what the people are entitled to against every government on earth, general or particular; and what no just government should refuse, or rest on in ference.’’ And thus it was that the dissenting votes in the nine States hec-me the rallying strength for the most treasured portion of the Constitution of the United States, the firs: ten amendments, known as the Bill of Rights. Here are the key phrases in those ten Amendments; “• • . shall make no law,” . . . “shall not be infringed,” . . . “without the consent,” . . . “shall not be violated,” . . . “with out due process," . . . "right to a speedy and public trial,” . . . “no fact tried by a jury shall be otherwise re-examined,” . . . “excessive bail shall not be required,” . . . “shall not be construed,” . . . “powers not delegated . . . are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” What stands out? What Government cannot do. How lucky we are that there were no landslide votes in 1787 and 1788 This Time How About Peace and Good Will? \ A 'a v. " 'N / 'AT! y> A - A-A %, A A' Ar WELLESLEY HILLS, MASS. - President Nixon will take over in January in a continuing national and international “state of siege.” His major legacy from the out going Administration will be Vietnam, a militarily resurgent Russia, inflation, and a dollar that is not yet “out of the woods.” WAR AND PEACE Much of the difficulty in v !. ch the United States finds itself to day, both at home and abroad, can be laid squarely on the door step of a terrible error in nat ional policy. The great mistake was the belief that we could fight a war in Southeast Asia and conduct “business as usual” elsewhere. The result was an im mensely unpopular confict and the setting in motion of a mas sive inflationary wave. The ef fects of both tragedies will con tinue to scourge our people with social divisiveness andeconomic inequalities for an untold length of time. Recession Pockets - Peace will not come in Vietnam like the dropping of a curtain. The in coming Administration does not intend to surrender. Hence, the path to peace will be tortuous and, at times, seem without end. But, even though fighting may flare now and then, the consump tion of the hardware of death will be considerably less in 1969 than in 1968. This will apply par ticularly to standard items that are burned up rapidly during heavy and widespread attack and counterattack. As a result, Bab son’s Reports looks for those concerns and areas that haA'e been heavily committed to me making of bombs, shells, small arms, light ammo, etc., to suffer a slump in business volume and employment as the year wears along. jr BUSINESS TO SCALE PEAKS IN 1969 NEW \ A. NO MADISON AVENUE The pundits would have us believe that President-elect Nixon is going to give us a modern Madison Avenue Ad ministration, a young, bright, polished and busy crew of crew-cut efficiency experts who can tally the statistics, ap peal and ratings for this or that project. We hope it isn’t so. The one thing that this country doesn’t need is more Madison Avenue. Madison Avenue has a false image. It’s a short-change street that doesn’t run the course. It begins well up Manhattan Island many blocks beyond Wall Street. It actually starts at what has become a Hippie park, in an area where the elite of the last century resided, an antiquated section which is adorned primarily by tottering remnants of another generation struggling to the bakery or the grocery on their only outing of the day. It sprints through a 15-block section of skyscraper soapboxes where polished young men with toupees and briefcases bump into each other, flows into a few blocks of specialty shops and then sediments and dies in the squalor of Harlem—spent and undone. It never reaches residential upper Manhattan. Madison Avenue can’t even run the length of a $24 island. It’s a phoney. There is only one Madison Avenue in our country, and it has a contrived image. But there are thousands of Maple Avenues, First Streets and Main Streets. And it was Main Street which produced a druggist’s son and a grocer’s son to contend for the presidency of the United States. It is a Main Street Administration that we need, not a Madison Avenue Administration. If you listen on Main Street, USA, you will hear that men and women, black and white, Democrat and Republican, are waiting for a Main Street man to step out and lead. No more of this concensus business; no more wheedling, wheel ing and dealing. The citizens on Main Street and First Street and Maple Avenue don’t want a bargainer or a reasoning- together guy. They want a leader who hoists a banner and says we’re going this way come hell-or-high-water, win, lose or draw. The Madison Avenue image won’t draw flies. The newly-elected President can write his own ticket for leadership, if he steps out like a Whittier, California Mainstreeter. If he has any doubts, he should ask his discern ing daughter, who vetoed a White House wedding, or a Madison Avenue wedding, and said, “Thanks,” but we’ll be married in that “Main Street” church down on lower Fifth Avenue. Everyday Counselor BY DR. HERBERT SPAUGH “Nobody wins in divorce cases,* according to a well- known lawyer, Mrs. Mary Louise McLeod of Detroit, Mich. She speaks out of 26 years of legal practice. “I find the problems created by divorce, especially when children are involved, are greater than the problems which caused the divorce.* Then she went on to say that a good law yer can help his clients solve their problems. I have been dealing with domes tic cases for over 40 years, es pecially since I commenced writ ing this column 35 years ago. I’ve never had a case brought to me which I felt could not be solved, if both husband and wife were willing to put aside their desires, prejudices, and stub bornness. -1 I was discussing domestic cases with a wise physician who has had much experience in this field. He said, “You know what is the basic cause for domestic breakdown?" Then he paused and looked at me. Then we both an swered the question at the same time with the same word - “stub bornness." Some counselors and psychia trists insist on counseling with a couple in domestic difficulty when We hope that her disdain for Madison Avenue is a family both are present I belong to the trait. school that believes in giving time for the husband and wife to state their cases separately. ThLif afier giving the matter thought and based on previous experience in the Christian ministry, I am prepared to make my recom mendations to both. But before I do that I invariably make sug gestions to each one as to their personal conduct and attitude which will make the joint con frontation much more effective. Some of you who read this column are having domestic trou ble. Instead of talking the matter over with members of your family or your friends, seek out a wise psychiatrist, marriage counse lor, or minister, one in whom you have confidence. State your case to him and follow his ad vise. Try to remember that marr iage is a divine institution or dained by God and that if it is to be effective, satisfying, and fruitful, it must be practiced ac cording to His law. If you can pray, “Not my will (there’s the catch), but Thine be done," then you’re on the way to a solution. Paris Seating Arrangement-On Their Hands m Speeding Driven CM Warning; Patrol On Alert Win Sotffc Carolina’s 1968 raffle deaths threatening to es- afcUih a ntw record any day, rith the approach of Christ- Hifhvay Patrolmen have ordered to hear down hard the State PatralM will be especially ikrt to «U rnortm tratte Tlo- MMikiekeMMteeouMtnd dangerous or lead to possible accidents. They will be checking on the speed motorist are travel ing by means of radar and by conventional clocking. Drivers who fail to heed signals and signs should not be startled to find a blue flashing light in their rear view mirrors. And, of course, the usual holi day drinking drivers will be sought out with vigilance. Any driver who shows indications of intoxication will be stopped and checked. Col. P. Frank Thompson, Pa trol commander, has decreed that patrolmeif be given their holiday tin|e off before or after Christ- mas so that most patrolmen will tfi .able to take to the highways in "quest of safer travel during this peak danger time. South Carolina’s traffic fatali ties had reached 955 by Decem ber 18, leaving only 13 more to tie the all-time worst record of 968 which occurred in 1966. Last year’s mark of 913 was equalled December 5. The Patrol will be seeking out drivers who insist on driving in excess of the speed limits. HANOI I - *- m 3 0INT OF VIEW The momentum built by rising business volumes and production will surely carry the usual mea surements of Gross National Product and the Federal Re serve Index of Production onto new all- time high ground in the year 1969. But that is not the whole story. What you want to know is what the rate of gain will be and what the shape of the year, business- wise, will look like. Gross National Product - To tal dollar value of all goods and services finished 1968 on a strong note. . .at nearly a $20-billion gain. That is only slightly less than the best 1968 quarter of $22 billion. Prospects now favor a good further boost in the first 1969 quarter. . .perhaps equiva lent to the $18-billion advance of the third 1968 stretch. The se cond quarter of next year may slip a bit from the first; but the upcoming half year will show a climb in dollar values per haps only $3-$4-billion below the great bulge of a year earlier. Assuming no dropping of the sur tax, we look for a lesser rate of gain in the final 1969 half . . .another big year, but taper ing as it wears along. Over all, T expect a GNP upthrust over 1968 of close to 7% (about $60 bil lion). Physical Volume - Physical output is not expected to match the dollar value of increase in 1969. . .not surprising, as more than half of the looked-for im provement will result from higher prices. Assuming the Fed eral Reserve Index ofProduction averages around 165 for 1968, we can project about a 4-point climb in the year ahead. But again, we think the best will be seen early in 1969. Capital Outlays - Despite a continuing depressed rate of plant utilization, business managers are projecting increased budgets for new plant and quipment. Look for a strong start -- perhaps as high as an 8% increase -- to be followed by a slower rate of gain as the year ages. For all of 1969, a 4% betterment would seem about the best to expect. Profits - Total corporate pro fits in the first half of 1969 will outdistance those of the year earlier period. . .they may even equal the strong final six months of 1968. Here again, however, squeezed by inflationary costs and somewhat less boisterous de mand, we look for a downdrift in profitability before 1969 has advanced too far. MONEY TO STAY COSTLY The first half of 1969 may ex perience some moderate easing in short-term interest rates. This will be occasioned by les sened federal demand for loans . . .as the budget moves from deficit to surplus and the Trea sury has no needtoborrqw. Most of the easing, however, will show up in the Treasury 90-day bill rate. Long-term money may ex perience some temporary down- jiggle. . .but over all Babson's Repor ; s is not expecting any sus tained slide-off from the most costly credit of the century. Also, as Uncle Sam comes back into the bond market later in the year, rates should again stiffen. Mortgage Costs - No real re lief is in sight here. Availabili ty and rate may be somewhat more favorable in the first half of 1969 than in the last. No in centive to postpone building or buying plans. Bd’siness Loans - If the Trea sury bill rate declines in the first half -- as we expect -- there will be much talk of lower costs for business loans. Here sian Bear is no longer emitting we feel that any easing will W friendly grunts of detente. Thor oughly aroused by near-revolu tion on his very doorstep -- and the gateway to his heartland -- by the Czech stirrings for free dom in the summer of 1968, he will not risk any “repeat per formance” >n 1969. It will be the “hard line” for the Kremlin throughout the coming year; and the Nixon Administration will be shoved off balance many a time. Most ominous is the powerful strengthening of the Soviet Medit erranean fleet; for there it is in direct contact with American and other NATO warships. Once more, it will be a case of ur gent defense needs taking pre cedence over pressing social de mands. The issue of “guns or butter” will persist through out 1969. Too much attention to ei ther or both could well lead to a price-wage spiral in our econo my. . .with all the threat of a deflationary plunge thereafter. cause “overkill” in business, so opened the money spigots wider .stimulating buying just when the tax was supposed to depress it; (2) Mr. & Mrs. J. 0. Pub lic sharply cut their rate of sav ings and went on a buying binge . . .augmenting their fling with big gobs of borrowed money. More to Come - So, here we are; Months after the “tax to kill inflation,' prices of goods and services are still spiraling up ward. This, of course, goads the workingman to support his labor boss when he demands outsize hikes in pay and benefits. Even though the Fed now gives signs of having moved to lessen the money rise from gusher rate to a more gentle flow, the floods of prior months will continue to seep through business and fi nancial channels. 4 . .at least dur ing the early part of 1969. Our staff here at Babson’sRe ports looks for “more of the same” during the first half of the year: Higher price tags, fur ther wage raises in excess of productivity gains, continued up- pressure on costs all around, and the inexorable fattening of the tax burden -- not alone from the per ennial upsweep of state and lo cal levies, but also from the substantial step-rate in social security charges. Indeed inflation is still incubating. The virus is virulent. The antitoxin is known. But the political medicos that will administer it have not yet come forth. Number One Problem - Mr. Nixon knows that inflation is the one force that can destroy this nation -- financially, morally, even militarily. He also knows that to move aggressively a- gainst it could plunge the U.S. into a depression. The latter state might be worse than the former. It seems likely, then, that he will move slowly against the ineutme of perpetually climbing costs ant)^ prices. Fortunately, the incoming President has the advantage of the anti-inflationary moves made in the late days of President John son’s tenure. We expect that he will move cautiously to augment these. As a result, we look for no spectacular attack on the coun try’s number one enemy in the opening days of Nixon's office. That means there will be further portents of inflation early next year, j .later in 1969 you can look for many signs of a topping off, even maybe some defla tionary signals. Russia Resurgent - The Rus- tiny and temporary. INFLATION STILL INCUBATING 1968 will go down in economics histories as “the year of the great boo-boo.’’ Early it was re cognized ..that the economy was overheating. . .that a cooling off was necessary to prevent run away price boosts and the in evitable aftermath of recession. The government opted for a fis cal “wet blanket* to smother the inflationary fires. . .andbelated ly the surtax on personal and corporate incomes was enacted, effective mid-1968. But the boom rolled on. . . confounding both the Federal Re- serve--the country’s money managers -- and the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. What happened? Two things: (1) The Fed thought the surtax would GORDON'S “Shoes for the Entire Family” 107 E. Main St. Phone 833-0667 * FALL AND WINTER CLEARANCE! Starts Dec. 26 AT 9:00 A. M. MANY STYLES TO SELECT FROM • LIFE STRIDE • CALIFORNIA COBBLERS • RED CROSS