Historical Newspapers of South Carolina

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ir FBS s?aiTfcK WATCHMAN. Rstah?iBhed April, i860. *Be Just ana Fear uor--Let all tte Ena? thou Aims - at - hy Country s ihv .'.rod -. and Truth's THE TRUS SODTHRON, Established june, I SQ Cosolidated Aug. 2,1881. . . SUMTER. 8. C . WEDNESDAY. JUNE 21. 1906. New Series-Vol. XXIV. So.48 -BY - OSTEEN PUBLISHING COMPANY SUMTER, S. C. TSRHS : $1 50 per auoam-in advance. ?9V1ST1BKK1I!: O ie Square first insertion....*..$1 CO Erery subseqnent insertion........ ?.. 50 Contracts for three months, or longer will b : made at redacedrates. All communications which subserve private interest? wii? oe ebarged for as ad versements. Obituaries and tributes of respects will be 3har?ed for. HI6HES eOTTOiTPHISES LIKELY. ---~ % C. COWAN MAKES EXHAUS? TIVE ANALYSIS OF THE MAR? KET SITUATION. He Estimates That, Considering Un? precedented Demand and Present Crop Condition, the Chance for a Famine in the Staple Are Great. C. C. Cowan, whose opinions on the market are always of the greatest in? terest to the trade, will today send out a letter that suggests some new ideas, perhaps, and is a very interesting ex? pression of opinion, to say the least. Following is^the letter in full: Now that the authorities have giv? en us the acreage and condition of the new crop, and the season ip sufficient? ly advanced to give us some clue to the general prospects, and crop esti m&es by premature grassers rango from 30,000,000 to 12.003,000 bales, let us tolrea look at the situation and see if we. can divine whar develop . ments the future may hold in store. And .n all of our reasoning and cal? culating we must bear ia mind that thc rf suits produced by stitist'.cs are dependent almost entirely upon thc existing conditions in trade and the existing prices; that a crop of 13,500, 000 is worth higher prices to a trade condition requiring 13,500,u00 than a crop of 10,000,000 is worth to a trade condition not requiring 10,000,000; that a surplus of 2,000,000 is less of a weight on a prosperous market than a surplus of 500,000 is on a market suffering from poor trade; that when cotton is depressed balow its legiti . mate value it can advance in the face of bearish statistics, and that when it is boosted above its legitimate value it can decline in the face ot bullish ? statistics. We recall how in the fall of 1899 cotton advanced considerably from the previous low point notwithstand? ing the excessive stocks of cotton and goods which accumulate in conse? quence of the two bumper crops of over 11,000,000 each, because cotton had been depressed below its value j and trade was on the mend. We saw cotton decline from previous high lev? els in the falls of 1903 and 1904 with famine supplies of cotton and goods, partly because cotton had been forced . above its legitimate value, but mainly because trade was exceptionally poor. J?ow then, the census report tells us that there have been 13,600,000 bales ginned in the South this season. Whereas some of that was marketed in August last, we will assume that an equal amount of the new crop will come in sight this August, and we will deal with a yield for the fiscal year of ( 13,600,000 bales, less 100,000 bales j which will be lost to the trade on ac? count of country damage, etc. Add? ing the visible supply on Sept. 1, last, of 470,000 bales, we will assume that the total supply for the season is in round figures 14,000,000 bales. Of the 13,500,000 of this crop available we have marketed 12,420,000 bales, leaving apparently in the planters' hands 1,080.000 bales, added to the present visible supply of American of 2,440,000 bales, leaves us 3,520,000 bales to draw from for the remaining 12 weeks of this season. Formerly, it was an element of weakness for a part of the surplus to be carried over by the planters. But since the South has shown its finan? cial ability to carry 5,000.000 or 6,000 000 bales of cotton without any signs of distress, it does not matter much in what proportion the surplus at the end of this season may be held by the planters, the spinners, or In the visi? ble supply. The merits of the situa? tion will be about the same. But, without attempting to approximately predict in what proportion the surplus will be divided between the three, let us assume a division which would seem a natural result. If the move? ment averages 72,000 baies per week for the balance of the sfa*?on the planters will be rid of all of their cot? ton excepting 220,000 bales. This much is usually carried over by them i.: norma! ?ea?ens. ?uder nr-rma conditions tne s>pimiers of the \vorl< ? cairy over stocks equal to f:om on to two months' consumption, the av I erage being about six weeks' supplies At the ends of the past two famin ? years they held only two to thre* j weeks' supplies, I place the con sujiption of American cotton thi season at 12.000,000, although som< authorities place it at 12,250,000. Th< spinners have secured 10,500,00( bales plus their stock on Sept. 1 last estimated at 550,000 bales, or 11,050, 000 bales total. If their takings av? erage 183,000 bales weekly from no^ on* or 2,200,000 bales, their total sup? ply will be 13,250,000 bales, whict would leave mill stocks sufficient foi only five weeks' consumption, a sup? ply below the average, and danger? ously limited with the mills so enor? mously committed ahead. This woulc" leave a visible supply of Americar cotton of 1,100,000 bales, which was considered a moderate visible ir former seasons when it used to range ?from 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 bales anc ; cotton ranged in price from 8 tc 10 1-2 cents per pound. My guess or the distribution of the surplus Sept. 1 next visible and invisible, woulc therefore be about as follows: Held by planters, 220,000 bales normal. Spinners' stocks, 1,250,000 bales small. / Visible American, 1,100,000 bales moderate. Mind you, we must get away from freak and famine conditions and com? pare with normal conditions. With the above estimate verified and trade only normally good, cotton should ?range between 8 and 10 cents as the crop news comes good or bad. We are figuring on good times now, not hard times. Xow, let us consider the possibili? ties and probabilities and endeavor to reach a reasonable conclusion as to the chances at present for a supply of the raw material the coming seas? on. But first, let us assume various yields for the coming crop and arbi? trarily distribute the surplus which would remain from each on Sept. 1, 1906.. assuming next year's consump? tion to be 12,000,000 bales. It is ob? vious that if the next crop is 12,000. 000 the statistics on Sept. 1, 1906 will be the same as those on Sept. 1, 1905, or about as follows: Held by plant? ers-220,000 bales-normal; spinners' stocks, 1,250,000 bales-small; visi? ble American, 1,100,000 bales-mod? erate. With a crop of 11,500,000 bales we would have about as fol? lows: Spinners' stocks, 1,250,000 bales-small; held by planters, 120, 000-small; visible supply, 700,000 very small. With a crop of 11,000,000 we would have: Spinners' stocks, I, 000,000-very small; held by plant? ers, nothing-famine; visible supply, 570,000 bales-famine. It is useless to proceed further down the scale, for any yield under 11,000,000 bales would intensify the famine conditions resulting from a crop of not over 11, 000,000 bales. Xow then, how large a yield seems possible for the growing crop? De? duct 11.4 per cent from the acreage; assume that there is no reduction pei acre in fertilizers; asume that the present season will prove as perfect as the last; assume that the boll wee? vil over an increased area will destroy no more late planted cotton this sea? son than early planted cotton last sea? son, assume a late open fall, and the yield could be 12,000,000 maximum. How large a yield seems possible for the growing crop? Deduct from the present crop of 13,000,000 e bales, II. 4 per cent acreage; assume that the season will continue only 5.8 points lower in condition than last year, remembering that the conditions shown in August, September and Oc? tober last year were respectively the next to the highest on record; a con? dition of 77.2 per cent being 7 per cent lower than one of 83, deduct 7 per cent also, making a deduction of 18.4 per cent from 13,600,000 bales, and we have 11,000,000. Then as? sume that the boll weevils and frost will, between them, destroy 200,000 bales more this year than last, and we would have a crop of 10,SOO,000 bales. Hon- small a yield seems possible for the growing crop? We have, roughly speaking, 3 per cent less acre? age and 3 per cent better conditions than in 1903 when the crop was 10, 000,000 bales. If conditions continue not over 3 per cent above that season and we have an early general frost on an abnormally late crop, which would destroy at least 500,000 bales, we can have as small a crop as 9,500,000 bales. If we have a good average yield per acre, or 197 pounds of lint cotton per acre, which is the average for ll years, including the four bumper ??MI-WCHIIMHIH J. -i r. - i. crops, the yield will be 11,000/ bales. If we have less than a gr average yield per acre we shall havi still greater cotton famine. I assume the acreage to be 2S.11 000 as estimated by the correspor ents of the Agricultural Departme 1 ignore Hyde's afterthought that t acreage only meant acreage actua ' planted. If they plant on to June : ?the acreage will be as large as li year; and if they plant on to July it will be still larger. But they a not going to plant on, and the cott would make nothing if they did. T planting was stopped in order to t to save the planted areas from t grass. However, any little plantii done after May 25 is more than offs by abandonment of acreage. I ha just returned from a trip through part of the eastern belt where th claim that the crop conditions are tl best in the South. All the cotton saw that was cultivated to go? stands was no further advanced thi it should have been on May 10. The was as much of it grassy, or not u or badly beaten by rains and needii cultivation. I get worse reports fro the middle and western districts, tl worst of all coming from Texas. I reference to weather 'reports it will 1 seen that during the last crop the were complaints of low temperatur and dry weather about the time tl crop was being cultivated, and th gave them clean fields and plants wi' good tap roots. This crop has be? soaked with rain during its simili stage of development, and with i surface roots, must have weath made to order to avoid failure, as can withstand neither continuous ra nor dry weather. The boll weevi now cover 35 per cent of the tot cotton area. In consideration of a this I cannot feel sanguine of am thing more than a good average yie] per acre, no matter if conditions c improve, which would mean a crop < 11,000,000 bales. In the New York Commercial < Npril 27 last I called the attention < the trade to the enormous short ir terest existing in spot cotton in th form of goods sold ahead. Before 1 o'clock that day Theodore H. Prie being a bull that day, had appropriai ed my argument and was distributin it here and sending it over the wire over his own signature. Howeve that does not detract in the least froi the force of the argument. The situation presented to us by th spinnersof the world is something en tirely new to the cotton trade an gives us problems to solve, facts t consider ?'-nd risks to guard again? ture. Xever in the history of the cot ton trade has there been such pros perity and such demand for goods. I: former seasons we have known th mills of some countries to be sol ahead for six months while those ii some other country would not be do ing so well. But here we have then allsold ahead to an average date o 12 months, and at such an enormou rate of consumption that it require 1,0'?0.000 bales a month to keep then running. And the sales have beei made at most profitable figures, mucl above the present price of cotton Still there is no let up to the demanc for goods, and they are steadily ad vancing and the mills are still sell? ing ahead. I estimate that since the beginning of this season the spinners have sole goods requiring 20,000,000 bales ol cotton, and they cannot stop selling altogether. So far they have had ir old stocks and takings about 11,000, 000 bales and are short about 9,000, 000 bales, and are still selling at high? er prices. A part of this short inter? est is carried by cotton dealers whe have sold ahead to the mills, and a part of it is carried by the speculators \vho have sold the future hedges that have been bought by the spot deal? ers and spinners, but the short in? terest is th er just the same. A consumption of 1,000,000 bales a month and a short interest in spot cotton of 9,000,000 bales! Who in the cotton trade has ever heard of such things as these? Who has ever had any experience that would be of value in dealing with such stupendous sit? uations? WThat gyrations we may have, and who would know what to do under critical or unexpected de? velopments? Speculations carried up to Sc a pound last season, but trade was poor and the mills were not committed ahead to any great ex? tent. Where would it ever stop this year if this monstrous short interest in spots should become alarmed? And what would happen to the large short interest in futures? There would be fluctuations and dangers that would try men's souls and finances as they have never been tried before in the cotton trade. On the advance we would hear of no mills shutting down, unless they should have to default their contract.-. We would hear of no cotton being shipped back here from eastern mills and Liverpool for de? livery. We v.-ouia hear nothing of the demand f >r spots being: checked by the advance in the market. We had all of these to contend with in the big bull movement of the last two sea? sons. Xo, nothing of the kind this time, for the spinners have got to have an average of 1,000,000 bales a month of American cotton coming to them for the next 12 months, for they have sold the goods. And if they can? not get the cotton that fast they are going to buy the futurs for protec? tion. I warn you that cotton values are resting upon a magazine like gun? powder. If all things come phenom? enally favorable for the growing crop we may range around these prices for some time. With a crop of 12,000,000 next season cotton might sell tempo? rarily as low as 7 1-2 cents some time next fall. But with a crop of much less than 11,000,000 some one wiser than I would have to guess how high it would go and how fast. Should a crop disaster set fire to this magazine cotton could advance to 20c as easily as it could to 10c."-New York Com? mercial. WATSO N-IvEXD A LL AFFAIR Dr. Kendal] and Dr. Watson's Broth cr Make Statements. The difficulty of Thursday night in Columbia between Dr. F. D. Kendall and Dr. J. J. Watson was discussed fully on- the streets yesterday as Dr. Watson is well known in this city. The Item publishes below a statement from Dr. Watson's brother, and also one from Dr. Kendall: Dr. Kendall's Statement. "After the collision he was tele? phoned for and went to the scene of the wreck and gave medical attention to the wounded. C. D. Nelson was the most seriously injured. Dr. Ken? dall had him taken to the home of Mr. Thomas Agnew, at 1317 Plain street, where he frequently has pa? tients taken care of while giving them attention. '.Shortly after midnight he was sit? ting in his office, which is next door to Mr. Agnew's, talking to Messrs. P. I. Welles and Wardlaw Moorman. Dr. Watson knocked at the door. When he came in he stated that Mr. Nelson had boarded several years with his mother and he wished to remove Mr. Nelson to her home. "Dr. Kendall invited Dr. Watson to sit down until he finished with the gentlemen who were in his office. Then he went with Dr. Watson to Mr. Agnew's, saying that he had no ob? jection to the removal of Mr. Nelson f Dr. Watson thought he was in con? dition to be removed. "Dr. Watson decided that it would be safe to remove Mr. Nelson and said he would send McCormick's ambu? lance for him. "Dr. Kendall replied that he would wait up until the ambulance came and see that Mr. Nelson was gotten out of the house all right. "Dr. Kendall returned to his office and was writing at his desk, with his door open. "When the ambulance came up the people with it made so great a noise that Dr. Kendall, not knowing to whom his protest was addressed, told them to make less noise, as there were other sick people at Mr. Ag? new's. "Dr. Watson, who, with his brothers, Stanmore and Ashie, was with the ambulance, evidently took the protest as a personal affront, for when Dr. Kendall came up he struck at his face. Dr. Kendall catching the main force of the blow upon the back of his hand, which he threw up to protect himself. One of Dr. Watson's brothers sprang between them and the fight was stopped. Dr. Kendall then told Dr. Watson to get his patient out and never speak to him again. "Immediately Dr. Watson applied a vile epithet to Dr. Kendall and sprang forward and struck him and continued fighting him. Dr. Kendall had a pen-knife in his hand, and. while warding off Dr. Watson's blows, struck him twice with the knife. At the second blow the blade parted from the handle. "While Dr. Watson was attacking Dr. Kendall, one of his brothers had hold of Dr. Kendall's right arm, his knife being in his right hand. It is not known whether he was attempt? ing to hold Dr. Kendall while he was being assaulted or trying to separate the two doctors. "Dr. Kendall returned to his office and Dr. Watson walked to Dr. Knowl ton's office, at the next corner, and Dr. Knowlton dressed his wounds, af ter whichTie was removed to his h o mt- on E landing street. "The throe Watson brothers being together and one of them having : twice commence ! an assault on him, ? Dr. Kendall thought best, after his knife broke, to secure his pistol. He went to his office for it. but Mr. Ag? new closely followed him and advised and urged him to stay in his office, which he did." Mr. Watson's Statement. Dr. Watson's brother, Mr. Ashie Watson was asked for a statement. He said: "At ll o'clock I received a phone message from the train dispatcher's office at the union station, where I am employed as a train dispatcher, telling me of the collision and that Mr. Nelson, who has been an intimate friend of mine for several years, was seriously injured. I went immediate? ly to the scene of the wreck and was informed by bystanders that Nelson had been taken to the Columbia hos . pital. I went to the hospital and found that he had been taken to Dr. Kendall's office. I went immediately to the doctor's office but he was not in and I learned that he was over at Dr. Oliveros', and I was on my way over there when I met Dr. Kendall and asked him if Nelson was serious? ly injured. His reply was that he so considered him. I asked for permis? sion to see Nelson, but was refused. Dr. Kendall told me I could come back the following morning. I then asked if he was in an unconscious condition and the reply was that he was unconscious. "I then went to the office of my brother. Dr. J. J. Watson, to see if there was not something we could do to see him and have him removed to the Columbia hospital where he could receive medical attention. He ad? vised me to take the matter up with Superintendent Williams of the Sa? vannah division, and .obtain his per? mission to see Mr. Nelson. I cid so. but Mr. Williams was not in a posi? tion to grant my request, as it was a matter entiirely with the street rail? way company. I then called up Mr. Nelson's brother at Rock Hill <y T the long distance and obtained hi> permission to move Charlie at once, but in the meantime Dr. Watson tel? ephoned for and received permission from Mr. Williams to see Nelson. He went to Dr. Kendall's office and was permitted by him to examine Mr. Nel? son. He found him in a conscious condition and was highly pleased when he saw him. Dr. Kend?.ll then gave his consent for Mr. Nelson to be removed and my brothers. Dr. Wat? son and Stanmore Watson, and I went to McCormick's for the ambulance. "We returned to Mr. Agnew's resi? dence, which is next door to Dr. Ken? dall's office, and as we started to enter the gate we heard Dr. Kendall shout. 'Stop there, stop there." We immed? iately obeyed his command and he turned, stepped in his office, picked up his hat and something else off the table, I don't know what, and came toward us remarking. 'Why don't you stop?' Dr. Watson replied that he had stopped. Dr. Kendall said, 'You did no such thing, sir,' in a very abrupt manner. Dr. Kendall was ad? vancing during this time and- Dr. Wat? son dropped the end of the litter he was carrying and went to meet him/ They began to fight. I rushed be? tween them and managed to separate them. Dr. Kendall stepped off two or three steps and threw his hand into his hip pocket and then shifted it to his side pants pocket. I asked him what he was doing and he replied: 'Getting my knife, getting my knife.* Dr. Watson, by this time, had re? turned to the litter, remarking, 'Oh well, it's all right.' .1 paid no further attention to Dr. Kendall and ills knife believing that the little difficulty had ended. Just at this time Dr. Kendall made a second advance, at the same time speaking in a dictatorial man? ner. I met him and begged him not to talk that way and requested him to go back to his office, as we could get the young man out all right. He paid no attention to me and proceed? ed to within a step of Dr. Watson and shaking his finger in the doctor's face said: T have always treated you as a gentleman, but don't you ever speak to me again.' Dr. Watson, replying with an epithet, said in a law voice. T have never spoken to you,' and they clinched. Dr. Kendall stabbing him once high up under the right arm with his left hand and once in the left side with his right hand. I did not have hold of Dr. Kendall at this time at all and as soon as he made the stabs he turned and ran toward Main street, past his office and jumped over his fence into his front yrd. Every? thing up to this time had taken place on the pavement in front of Mr. Ag? new's residence. We then hurried to Dr. Knowlton's office to ascertain the POWDER Absolutely Pure HAS tm SUBSTITUTE extent of his wounds. My brother? Stanmore, and I left, our brother ir* charge of Dr. Knowlton and returned; to the litter which had not been moved, from the street. We had a police ofv fleer and Mr. McCormick assist us in getting Mr. Nelson out and placing; him in the ambulance and I took him. home. "I wish to state that there was ab-? solutely no noise made by us up ta the time of the difficulty and we were? cautioned by Dr. Watson before ar-s riving at the house to be very careful and make as little noise as possible.'* A ROYAL MARRIAGE, Princess Margaret of Connaught Weds Heir to Swedish Throne. Windsor, June 15.-Princess Mar-? garet of Connaught, granddaughter* of Queen Victoria, was married today to Prince Gustavus Adolphus of Swe? den, son of the Swedish Crow?r Prince, The ceremony was performed in St, George's chapel on the grounds of Windsor Castle, the Archbishop of Canterbury officiating. The brief cer? emony of the Church of England waa used. The request of the bride andi groom that the wedding be as quir: aa possible was carried out. King Ed? ward. Queen Alexandria, and th? Crown Prince of Sweden attended the? wedding, with thc members of tho, diplomatic corps. WHY TOGO WON. Rojestvensky's Ships Were Fillet^ With Mutinous Sailors. St. Petersburg, June 15.-The cor? respondent of the Publishers' Presa has learned from an authoritative; source that the official report made on Admiral Rojestvensky's recent overwhelming defeat, which has been kept from the public, says the sailora on his vessels were in a discontented, mood throughout the voyage to "ha far east. Several times there were? outbreaks among the sailors who re? belled against the poor food served, them. Every prison on the shipa was filled with mutinous sailors who were released Just before the battle began. ARMISTICE ARRANGED. Russian Paper Reports That Hostiii? ties in Manchuria Will Cease. St. Petersburg. June 17.-The NVOQ Yremya has information from what it considers an authoritative source that an armistice has been arranged. JAPS SUFFER SLIGHT DEFEAT. Two Positions Lost By Russians Fri? day Reoautpured. London. June 19-A dispatch to the Reuter Telegram Company, fron; St. Petersburg, says news reached there from Godsiafan, Manchuria, saying Russians have recaptured; L.'*o Yang Wo Pen and Sumiencheng, fror* which they were driven on Fri? day by the Japanese troops. Dispatch? es last night gav* official report from Oyama in which he recounted the taking of these positions, which was defended mainly by a force of over 5.000 cavalry and twenty guns com? manded by General Mistchenko. MERCHANTS BANISHED. American and European Firms Or? demi to Leave Port Arthur by Japanese Chefoo, Jane 19.-European and American firms, with established busi? ness houses in Port Arthur, which was captured by the Japanese after a ?on? and notable sfege- have been notified by the Japanese that they must leave the town and remove their merchan? dise.