The Bamberg herald. (Bamberg, S.C.) 1891-1972, September 16, 1915, Page 2, Image 2
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FIGHT FOR 12-CEXT COTTOX.
-
Twelve-Cent Prices are Justified by
the World's Demands.
in?
I beg space in your columns, Mr.
Editor, to present a subject of the
utmost importance to all our Southern
country. There is no doubt in
most thoughtful minds but that the
mttnn rrnr is soill2: to be
MVUWAJl W www-. w - w
worth $750,000,000 to the men who
own it next spring, but it is worth
only $500,000,000 to the producers
- at present prices?and it is to save
to Southern growers and fc> oui
Southern country this extra quarter
of a billion dollars that the united
energies of press and people should
now be directed. The fundamental
-TV ? _
facts seem to me to be clear:
1.. Cotton, even though the new
crop of 1915 has started coming on
the market, is still selling on the
basis of prices fixed by last year's
17,000,000-bale crop.
2. These prices must soon be ad /..
justed, however, to fit the conditions
of a 12,000,000-bale crop (or proba
- r\ /\ r\ i-t AAA AAA
bly only a iu,uuv,uuu or i?,vvv,i/vybale
crop), and this adjusted price
ought at the very least to reach 12
'Cents a pound for middling.
As briefly now, as clear argument
will permit, I wish to point out and
emphasize the truth of these, statePments.
I.?The World's Demands Justify
Twelve Cents,
i*. Assuming even a 12,000,000-bale
yield of Southern cotton this year
fe (and it will probably be less), this
t % year's world production will be 3,000,000
bales short of the world's
conservatively estimated consump|p;
' tion - during the coming twelve
months. That is to say, the world
;k, will consume every pound of this
year's crop and 3,000,000 bales of
^ the present surplus.
Secretary Hester of the Nfew Or*
leans cotton exchange estimates last
PA v year's Southern production (not the
K|f;A ' commercial crop) at 17,004,000
:V;{ bales. The United States government
A' estimate (16,134,930 plus, 791,464
i'7 , linters) is 16,926,349?practically
C'" 17,000,000 bales. This was over 2,000,000
bales in excess of the 1913
crop.
Now what happened with this
jfe , bumper 17,000,000-bale crop in spite
& " of all the demoralized conditions of
SPlti trade and finance?the crop of which
P%r. it was said last fall we should not
- export 4,000,000 bales? The facts
|fo|*v are that the world used so much of
it that the total world's visible sup(
^ ply of all cotton in mid-summer this
gfc. year . was only 5,435,168 bales
against 3,522,276 bales the year
? . before. In other words, with a
5 5 O'VT ,
17,000,000-bale Southern crop to
' V, .handle, the world's visible supply increased
only 1,900,000 bales. What
is going to happen this year then,
ft; with the South offering 5,000,000 or
|p? '/ 6,000,000 bales less?and the prof
> 1 duction of other countries also de1^
creased? And this query brings me
to another point:
p - . J3L?The World's Crop Prospects
fc- * h Justify Twelve Cents.
r ? Mr. W. P. G. Harding, of the fed|pjf>
eral reserve board, early in the sumJ
mer secured reports from consular
officials all over the world indicat^
' ing a total cut in the world's cotton
crop this year of 5,000,000 bales,
Egypt and India reporting "radical
H-; reductions in acreage." Since that
- , time the prospects have further declined.
Bg&nr- *
But even if we accept this early
rtwai-.octimijto nf thp ernn we see that
VT Vi ^VAUiiMvv vr *. v**v -w? - - ?
/ if last year's crop, being 5,000,000
bales bigger than this year's, yet
increased the surplus only 2,000,000
bales., then this year's crop will leave
% 3,000,000 bale deficit?to be
e V' drawn from the surplus.
: % The facts are, however, that even
Pa 12,000,000 bale estimate for the
f South now seems too high. This is
not simply my view, but the view of
many experts, including so conservative
and competent an authority as
the New York Journal of Commerce
^ , which has just declared that in view
of present conditions, "the yield
seems likely to be nearer 10,000,000
than 12,000,000 bales." And now
comes the Wall Street Journal itself
quoting William S. Halliburton, of
Daniel O'Dell & Co., as saying: "The
current season's crop may be as low
A " A A A A A T*.
US 1U,0UU,UUU UciitJS. it is
within the reach of present conditions
that wre shall see 12 1-2-cent
K4- cotton
before the end of the season."
These two authorities base; their
estimates chieflv on condition reports
from all over the South, but
might have added the further testimony
that the South cut its fertilizer
consumption this year from
4,431,000 tons to 2,636,000 tons?
almost half?and the effect of this
cut will probably make itself most
evident from now* on as closer scruN
tiny is given the fruiting of the crop.
The reader can easily see for himself
therefore, that if we have onlv
a. 10.000.000 bale crop, the factories
of the world would utterly drain the
market dry, leaving it subject tc
such conditions as occurred a few
years ago when speculators carriec
prices to 17 and 20 cents a pound.
And now having pointed out thai
twelve-cent prices are justified be
cause the 1915 crop is certainly 3,-1
uOO.OOO and possibly 5,000*000 bales
' short of the world's demands, mean- <
ing that factories and munition fac- <
tories will consume all the present ]
yield with the greater part if not j <
! all the world's visible surplus, I al- :
' so wish to call attention to the fact i
L that? ;
' III.?Amman Prosi>eiity Justifies ;
Twelve Cents. i
The American Bankers' associa- tion
has just been meeting in Seat'
itle, Washington, and what was the
i J
' message that the president of this
greatest organization of financiers i
brought the country? He predicted,
| says a press dispatch, that "an al- i
1 most unbelievable prosperity is rush- >
ing on the nation," or to quote his <
exact words: 1
"When bank reserves, which are '
L greater now than they have ever <
* been in the history of the 'country,
' are distributed, the nation will en- 1
joy almost unbelievable prosperity.
The volume of money on hand is so
5 .great that it cannot find a natural
outlet. The movement of the tremendous
crops, with the attendant ]
* financial activity, will still further 1
increase the bank reserves." ]
And manufacturers are no less op- 1
' timistic than bankers. The Factory <
Magazine, of Chicago, recently took i
a poll of 163 Eastern and Middle 1
Western manufacturers as to the t
prospects for business in the fall.
Forty, or practically one-fourth of <
the" total number, declared conditions
"exceptional," 23 "fine," or
"above normal," 60 "good," 18
"fair" and "fairly good," only seven
1 "dull and poor," and only one "much
below normal and very poor." \
Another point not to be overlooked
is?
' IV.?The New Federal Reserve Act
Insures Better Prices.
President Hirsch, of the Texas
Bankers' association, told the big
, Cotton States conference of Southern
bankers in Galveston: "For the
first time in the history of the South,
gentlemen, the Southern bankers
have the financial ability to market
, gradually this crop. It would almost
appear as if the federal reserve
act had been drafted for the benefit
\
of Southern producers." Just because
the reserve act doesn't give the
farmers all the help they need?just
because it doesn't take the place, nor
profess to take the place, of the
much-needed rural credits legislation
?is no reason for denying or minimizing
the great advantages it does
offer.
The federal reserve system does
enable the banks in the South where
money is needed, to draw upon the
great reserves in other sections for
c
moi-ino- Iaotio r?? tha oniton r>rnn" nr
uianm^ iuuuu vu vuV wwvM v. , w- ,
as Mr. W. P. G. Harding, of the fed- 1
eral reserve board officially $ays:
"Banks have now ample facilities *
which they have never before enjoyed
for rediscounting the notes taken K
against such loans, and it is for them t
more than for any other agency, to *
determine the policy of the South in .
regard to the marketing of the pres- ;
ent cotton crop."
And President Woodrow Wilson in c
a letter to Mr. Harding writes: "It 1
is evident from what you tell me, *
* f
that the country banks with whom
the farmer and other producers directly
deal can get money at from '
four to four and a half per cent. . . I
think that we can confidently ex- e
pect that the banks in the cotton
States a*nd in the agricultural regions c
generally will content themselves ^
with a rate not more than one or F
n
two per cent, above the rate which
they themselves pay." It is up to
the banks to Justify this faith ex1
1 ^ J t
pressed Dy cue uc<tu di mo uativu.
And the crop can be warehoused. s
Mr. Harding points out that even
last fall the South had facilities for *
storing 11,577,465 bales, and these s
facilities have been greatly increas- s
ed since then. ^
The next thing I probably ought to
say is?
V.?Twelve-Cent Prices are Justified,
Contraband or Xo Contraband.
Of the 8,543,000 bales of American
cotton shipped, to Europe in the t
fiscal year ending July 31, 1915, on- c
ly 242,000 bales went to German
ports. Of course, there was more
that went indirectly to Germany, but
We must remember that a consider- ,
able part of Germany's normal de- y
J ' -*Tm n AvnArfnrl f n
mana ior uouuu wa,a ca^ui t^u w ^
Germany's foreign trade and that
' this trade will now be supplied by
other countries. The contraband or
der may almost be termed infamous
if England does nothing to compen- ?
sate us for trying to make Southern ,
farmers bear her burdens, but in ,
<
any case to offset the contraband ori
der we have (1) the greatly increas- ,
: ed demand for cotton for war pur* ^
poses, (2) the increased demand for .
. American, English, and continental
factories that must supply the trade .
' formerly supplied by uerman mins,
> together with the fact (3) that Ger5
many is almost sure to buy and store
> up cotton right here in America to
" hold until sea trade is reopened.
I Even with the contraband order in ;
effect, therefore, twelve-cent prices
t are amply justified, whereas with
- open seas to all Europe, cotton would <
likely bring 14 or 15 cents.
An able and eminent committee
Dn arbitration ought to be named at
once by England and America, to
make a fair and just estimate of the
damage in price per pound resulting
from the "orders in council" and
contraband order, and England
should then be required to pay this
amount per pound as a bonus to every
American cotton producer this
fall.
1 confidently believe that if England
should change her contraband
rules so as to inflict corresponding
injury upon any strong American
manufacturing interest, some such
settlement would be required; and
Southern farmers should rise up and
demand that the same recognition
be given an agricultural industry as
would be given a manufacturing industry.
The practical lesson clearly taught |
by present conditions then is? ?
ri.?Farmers Should Hold for Twelve
Cents and Bankers Should
Help Them Hold.
Of course we must be reasonable.
Don't expect bankers to lend on cotton
not stored or insured, nor expect
them to lend the full market
yalue. Land-owning farmers of good
character who have been depositors
in banks, however, will frequently
be able to borrow without such restrictions.
The thing to do is for farmers in
svery neighborhood to organize, formally
or informally, for standing together
in holding and marketing the
3rop, and find out just what the local
banks will do. Last year it was repeatedly
stated by the minority of
bankers who were willing to lend
money on cotton, that few farmers
ipplied for such loans. Let not that
be said this year. We must keep ^he
3rop from being rushed to market at
ni?oooTit nripoc onH that moans that
iWU J 14iUU VUMV umvmiuv V?4V??
farmers must avail themselves of all
I;he cooperation afforded by banks?
for many owners must have advances
in order to meet pressing obligacions.
And let every farmer remember
this: It hurts prices just as
nuch for your neighbor's crop to be
rushed to market as for your own
crop to be. Consequently we should j
aave neighborhood action everywhere,
with the stronger farmers
md plantation owners joining to
lelp the weaker ones to hold, grade,
warehouse and sell together.
Only by the most thoroughgoing I
cooperation of all forces can we save I
;o the South the 'full quarter of a 1
)illion dollars of hard-earned wealth 1
hat will otherwise go into the hands "
)f speculators and foreign interests. ?
tfor must we fail to realize that the
worst and most dangerous "bear" of
ill, the man we have most to dread
ight now, is not* the Wall street
>pecuIator-devil who has been so ofen
cursed and denounced, but the _
'bear" farmer right here in the j i
south who is willing to prove traitor JJ
o the cause by offering to give away
he crop at present prices?or the
'bear" merchant or "bear" banker
rho forces him to sell. Yesterday
norning's repprt of the New York
:otton exchange, for example, an- M
lounced that prices would have gone Ca
tigher the day before but for the
act that?
"Some of the reports received
rom Georgia and Alabama predict:d
that farmers would sell freely at jy
light cents." Jjj
And again in the earlier reports
?f the New York cotton exchange
ust two days ago we also read that I
irices would have gone higher but I
'there was more Southern selling." I
Pour Pinal Suggestions. I
Let me conclude this argument for I
welve-cent prices with four specific g
uggestions: I
1. Let press and people spread
he news that the crop is really I
hort?certainly 3,000,000 and pos- I
iibly 5,000,000 bales short of the I
vorld's needs. I
2. Hold for twelve cents without I
>orrowing if you can. But remem- m
>er ''it is committing business sui:ide"
to refuse to borrow if you can ^
hereby hold your crop.
3. Not only should cotton bring I
welve cents but cottonseed prices
should break all records. Our ex- I
lort trade in cottonseed oil has |
lumped over sixty per cent, in one
'ear?from 192,000,000 to 318,000,)00
pounds. And if good prices ?
were paid for seed of a 17,000,000 g
irop, what sort of prices should we g
lot demand for seed from a crop of
inly 10,000,000 or 12,000,000 bales? LA
4. With $500,000,000 for her new pc
lotton crop, the South will barely gu
'pay out." With $750,000,000 the
whole section will have a jubilant ?
md abounding prosperity. BankiT'c?
mornimnts and all classes, there
Tore, should join our farmers in the of
fight for twelve cent prices now and
for a State warehouse system in ev- 'n^
srv State to help insure fair prices
in future years.?Clarence Poe, editor
of the Progressive Farmer.
A Real Symphony. |^|
Music Teacher?What is your im- pr
pression of harmony? foi
Smart Student?A freckled faced ^
girl in a polka dot dress leading a r
coach dog.?Judge. Ca
%
I
ilm vmir h
uiu; VHl V!
With the Farmer
Jones A. Wil
Bring Your Wheat z
and Get Flour an
'X
- \
i
Farmers, Don't Forget
*
s . ___T
E. H. HENDESRON i1*?
Attorney-at-Law _ _
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j I H WHEN PRICES ARE HIGI
I ^ ALfll^ 0 PAllA_ I of North Carolina the finestlot of CA1
01Q r IQ fll l.nillQ JO. PPl/Pl I shipment during September and Octobei
Ifllullfl Ul U111110 w 1 UVul I and hardy and can stand the effects of tl
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MALARIA or CHILLS & FEVER. | I
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taken then as a tonic the Fever will not ! Wt ataomw cabbampum
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urday, August 21st
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-iANDLER
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UN HOUSE. Ehrhardt. S. C.
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| KflK F to supply your home I {
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H. We have growing in the mountains fl
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LORIDA HEADER. The only cabbage that has I
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